It's hard to make predictions, and they usually turn out wrong. But we're willing to risk the scathing mockery of the internet. As we look ahead to 2024, we'll use some useful data (both proprietary and gathered from the internet) to guess what will happen and to answer the question that most of us have: "When will hiring return?". Here's Nostradamus Futuras forecast for 2024.
Prediction #1
Hiring will return in 2024. The FAANG companies are driving overall engineering hiring volume, whether we like it or not. While Meta and Netflix are currently hiring aggressively, the other FAANGs aren't, but I'm inclined to think that most of them will resume hiring next year, following Meta and Netflix's lead.
Prediction #2
In January 2024, mid-level and senior engineering hiring will pick up significantly. This part is less certain, but we expect hiring to return to (or quite close to) H1 2022 levels by H2.
Prediction #3
The compensation at a given level will remain flat for at least the next six months.
Prediction #4
Due to inertia, down-leveling will continue for at least the next six months.
Prediction #5
For at least the next 6 months, recruiters will be increasingly stretched thin, which will make applying online even less effective.
Prediction #6
Hiring will NOT return to where it was for a long time.
Advice for Action
It is reasonable to expect that hiring will return to normal in H2 2024, or close to it. In the meantime, hiring is coming back, but it's not quite there yet. You can't approach your job search the same way you did during the boom during this liminal period.